Total cost of Rwanda deportations will range between £1.1bn and £3.9bn, says IPPR

By Milton Tella – New analysis by Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) reveals the true costs of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda to be in the billions.

As part of the Rwanda deal, the UK has to pay up-front fixed costs of £370m, followed by a further £120m once 300 people are relocated to Rwanda plus £20,000 for each person relocated as part of the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF).

In addition to this, the UK must pay up to £150,874 per person relocated, to cover the costs of asylum processing and integration, as well as an extra £500 for healthcare.

The precise costs will vary depending on how many people relocated to Rwanda end up leaving the country within five years. For each person who leaves, the UK is expected to contribute an extra £10,000 to facilitate their departure but otherwise stops their ongoing payments.

There are already an estimated 20,000 people who have arrived irregularly in the UK since the Illegal Migration Act was passed, and which, if the Act was implemented in full, would need to be sent to a third country, like Rwanda. 

IPPR estimates the total payments to Rwanda for removing this cohort would range between £1.1bn and £3.9bn. It would cost £1.1bn even if every asylum seeker left Rwanda straight away, while it would cost £3.9bn if all stayed for at least five years.Moreover, the UK taxpayer has to pay further operational fees, including staffing costs, legal costs and escorting costs.

In total, the cost of sending one asylum seeker to Rwanda could be as much as £228,000 – based on an assumed quarterly departure rate from Rwanda of 0.5 per cent. 

 This compares to the cost of around £53,000 to house an asylum seeker in UK accommodation for two years while their application is being processed.

Even if the Rwanda scheme successfully acts as a deterrent, it would require a large majority of asylum seekers (up to 77 per cent) to be deterred for the cost of the Rwanda scheme to just break even, a highly unlikely outcome.

Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, said: “Aside from the ethical, legal and practical objections, the Rwanda scheme is exceptionally poor value for money. For it to break even, it will need to show a strong deterrent effect, for which there is no compelling evidence. Under the government’s plans, billions could be sent to Rwanda to remove people who have already arrived irregularly since the Illegal Migration Act was passed. The only winner from this scheme appears to be the Rwandan government itself, which has already secured hundreds of millions without doing much at all.”

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