Assessing Governor Ademola Adeleke’s Second Term Prospects
By Olayiwola Balogun – Democracy in many developing nations in Africa, particularly Nigeria, has struggled to deliver the dividends citizens expected after more than two decades of continuous democratic rule. After 24 years of uninterrupted democracy since 1999, the promise of development is still undermined by political rivalries, power struggles and the pursuit of personal interests by sections of the political class.
Instead of sustaining policies that encourage development, political actors often engage in contests for control that slow progress. Political competition that should strengthen democratic accountability sometimes becomes an instrument that stalls development.
Osun State presents an interesting example of this reality.
A tour of the major towns in the state reveals visible signs of government activity. In cities such as Osogbo, Ede, Ile Ife, Ikire, Iwo, Ejigbo and Ila Orangun, several infrastructure projects are ongoing or approaching completion.
Road construction, rural electrification and the development of an airport facility are among the projects the administration of Governor Ademola Adeleke says are aimed at repositioning the state’s economy and encouraging trade and investment.
Supporters of the administration argue that when government performance is acknowledged, political tensions tend to reduce. When political interests overshadow recognition of good governance, the people ultimately suffer and development slows down.
Osun State has long been known for its politically aware electorate. Elections in the state often attract national attention and sometimes influence broader political developments in the South West. While politicians have often tried to shape outcomes through influence and alliances, the electorate in Osun has repeatedly demonstrated that it can decide its own political direction.
The 2026 governorship election will therefore provide another opportunity for political actors to test their strength before the voters.
Three major figures are expected to shape the contest. The incumbent governor Ademola Adeleke who is seeking a second term. Former governor Rauf Aregbesola who now serves as interim national secretary of the African Democratic Congress. Former governor Gboyega Oyetola who is currently the minister of Marine and Blue Economy.
Within the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji has emerged as the party’s candidate. His emergence followed a primary process that saw seven other aspirants disqualified. Some analysts believe the controversy surrounding that process may affect unity within the party.
Former governor Rauf Aregbesola still commands a loyal following through his Omoluabi Progressives political structure. However some observers believe that structure has weakened following the departure of a close ally, the former Secretary to the State Government Moshood Adeoti.
Najeem Salaam, the governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress and former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, is also considered a contender although analysts say his political structure may not match the strength of the larger political camps.
Governor Ademola Adeleke enters the race with the advantage of incumbency. His supporters believe his first term performance has been more visible than the administrations of his two immediate predecessors.
During a recent visit to Osogbo, the state capital, I felt the need to gauge the mood among civil servants especially in light of reports that the federal government had withheld funds meant for local government workers.
Despite the uncertainty, the mood among workers appeared surprisingly positive as salaries were reportedly still being paid regularly.
Foluso, a staff member in the Ministry of Works and Transport, said the government had found ways to keep salary payments steady.
“The administration of Governor Ademola Adeleke has deployed some financial engineering to cope with regular payment of full salaries whereas his predecessors were paying half salaries,” he said.
Another civil servant, Shakirat from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, said political party affiliation mattered less to many workers than the performance of the government.
“That the governor has changed political platform to contest the coming election makes no difference. Wherever he goes we will follow,” she said.
Mutiu, another resident who frequently travels between Osogbo and his village, said the improvement in road infrastructure had made movement easier.
“Governor Adeleke has performed beyond expectations. I enjoy visiting my village every weekend because of the good road network he has constructed,” he said.
Another observer expressed a similar view.
“Osun people should be proud of Governor Adeleke. He has done very well beyond our expectations in his first term. He deserves a second term.”
Still, Osun’s lively political culture often mixes serious debate with humour. One resident joked that the governor’s well known public dance moves had also become part of the political conversation.
“Looks like we could do with another four years of dance entertainment,” he said with a laugh.
As the election approaches, concerns have also been raised about possible political tension and attempts by external forces to influence the outcome.
Some observers fear that political interests outside the state may attempt to shape the electoral process while others warn about misinformation campaigns aimed at discrediting the state government.
For many residents the central question remains simple. Whether the progress currently visible across the state should be continued or whether a change in leadership would serve the state better.
The decision will ultimately rest with the voters of Osun State when they go to the polls in 2026.
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