By Professor Chris Imafidon – UK has embarked on the world’s largest scientific experiment to defeat an invisible enemy, Covid-19. The current campaign to identify the hot-spot and pre-empt any spread via regular testing is commendable provided it is a core part of an overall strategy of implementing a rapid follow-up.
This universal programme of testing both ill, and healthy individuals was originally piloted in Liverpool and the official government data demonstrated clear benefits in both the education of the population and human activities.
However in this expanded scheme, everyone in England is expected to get twice weekly rapid testing in the comfort of their home, office or school IRRESPECTIVE of whether they are well. This big step confuses sane citizens who ask why fix an unbroken car. But Scientists understand experimentation and modelling, therefore support a huge expansion of the government’s mass asymptomatic testing programme while leading clinicians disagree.
Under the new regime, anyone is expected to order free lateral flow tests online to use at home, access them through their workplace, or obtain them from their local authority or local pharmacies, said the government, “to help prevent outbreaks and reclaim a more normal way of life.” This seems to have worked well with schools in the last month.
COST VS COMPLICATIONS
In September last year, the government was prepared to spend £100bn ($138bn) for Covid-19 testing. This is approximately the entire annual National Health Service (NHS) budget in England—to fund mass testing of the population “to support economic activity and a return to normal life” under an ambitious programme.
Health economists criticise this exercise as costly and unevaluated, warning that it may provide false reassurance. Then Dr Angela Raffle, consultant in public health and lecturer at Bristol University who has worked for the UK national screening programmes since 1996, said, “Testing programmes must be evaluated before being introduced, and with a rapid infection like SARS-CoV-2 evaluation could be done quickly.
“For some reason even the results of the few pilot projects that have been done have been kept secret or reported in a way that ignores important biases. This initiative will add even further waste of resources to the already low effectiveness UK approach to testing.”
For key workers, schools, and special categories, this is not news. But for ordinary, everyday people, medical test or examination of any kind, including the so-called “Pregnancy like test” for a virus raises big questions. But scientists say that “widening the offer to the entire population would detect more cases and break chains of transmission, this then stops lock-downs and eliminate further waves of infection”
CONSTRUCTIONS
Rt. Hon Matt Hancock, England’s health secretary, said, “Around one in three people who have covid-19 show no symptoms, and as we reopen society and resume parts of life [that] we have all dearly missed, regular rapid testing is going to be fundamental in helping us quickly spot positive cases and squash any outbreaks.” Almost echoing what Engr Isaac Udotong, co-Founder of Globalpass, a champion of the Siemens’ Clinitest antigen tests, another lateral flow test.
Senior academic, Allyson Pollock, professor of public health at Newcastle University disagrees saying “The programme has not been properly evaluated in any population group. The harms and costs are likely to be considerable. It would be better if the government got the basics right and focused on people with symptoms [while] ensuring contact tracing works.”
The Prime Minister, Rt. Hon Boris Johnson counters saying that “Massive efforts have been made by the British public to stop the spread of the virus. As we continue to make good progress and with our roadmap to cautiously easing restrictions underway, regular rapid testing is even more important to make sure those efforts are not wasted. That’s why we’re now rolling out free rapid tests to everyone across England – helping us to stop outbreaks in their tracks, so we can get back to seeing the people we love and doing the things we enjoy”
ACTION REQUIRED AFTER TESTING
In this mass testing programme anyone who test at home will need to register their results online or by calling 119. And, in line with updated guidance, those who test positive should self-isolate and order a confirmatory traditional lab-based test (polymerase chain reaction test). People with covid-19 symptoms should continue to book a test online or by calling 119, the government expects.
Meanwhile, England’s director of Public Health and Chief Medical adviser to NHS Test and Trace Dr Susan Hopkins, who co-ordinates the covid-19 strategic response is certain that “Rapid testing helps us find covid-19 cases that we wouldn’t otherwise know about, helping to break chains of transmission. These tests are effective in detecting people who are infectious and therefore most likely to transmit infection to others. They are another tool now available to help maintain lower infection rates.”
CONCLUSION
Whatever, the school of thought, community based testing or what can be best described as population screening has its place in the battle against an unseen enemy. The headache with past similar programme has always been the implementation, particularly compliance with instructions in unsupervised circumstances. The practical problems seem to have been overwhelmed by the huge ideological debate or political posturing while innocent lives and livelihoods are being lost.
Questions about the effectiveness of these antigen tests being able to detect various variants including the Brazil “P1” Variant or the South African variant need to be conclusively addressed. The thinking behind the war-like effort such as this, is keeping up with the fast spreading or spreadable virus. Regarding it as an over-kill or too aggressive retaliation against the invisible enemy for lost lives is most unhelpful. The mantra should be “Find the enemy – irrespective of the means”. At the end of this experiment, the first of its kind anywhere in the world, every school kid will have become a “scientist” or seen the practical demonstration of scientific principles and this will recruit a new generation of STEM graduates.
Professor Chris Imafidon, is a multi-Guinness World record holder; world renowned adviser to monarchs, governments, presidents and corporate leaders; Mentor to New York Times Bestellers and a Sunday Times Op-ed author. [Twitter @ChrisImafidon; Instagram @CoImafidon; Facebook/Linkedln –Professor Chris Imafidon
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