By Milton Tella – Since the launch of the government’s International Education Strategy in 2019, growth in international student recruitment to the UK has delivered a boost of more than £60 billion to the UK’s economy, new analysis shows.
Graduate route visa is vital to the UK’s attractiveness as a study destination says Universities UK, as it calls on all political parties to commit to retaining a competitive post-study work offer.
Emerging data shows international student demand and enrolments are falling, with reductions at postgraduate level most significant. New survey shows only a very small minority (3%) of the public realise the scale of the economic contribution made by international students, or the size of the contribution to the NHS via the Immigration Health Surcharge.
The analysis by Universities UK (UUK), drawing on London Economics data, demonstrates the extraordinary economic contribution from increased international student numbers in that time; a period which saw the launch of the Graduate visa which allows students to stay and work in the UK after completing their studies for two or three years. The £60bn in additional economic impact over the duration of their studies sits alongside huge cultural, academic, and soft power benefits from attracting global talent into UK higher education. The UK government’s International Education Strategy aimed to improve the UK’s competitiveness in international recruitment and drive growth, reversing more than a decade of stagnation in international student numbers.
It set the ambition to host at least 600,000 international students each year and announced that a new post-study work offer would be reintroduced. Together, these actions helped the UK regain our position as a leading destination for international students.
However, recent policy and rhetoric puts our continued success at risk. Uncertainty over the long-term commitment to the UK’s post-study work offer – most recently following the announcement that the Migration Advisory Committee would be asked to review the Graduate route – is impacting on the decision making of prospective students. Increases in visa fees and new restrictions on the ability to bring dependants have both had a negative impact on the perception of the UK as a study destination.
Data has shown uncertainty over post-study work opportunities is an important factor in international student decision making, while a recent survey undertaken by UUK suggests that international student numbers are now declining, following a peak in 2022/23. The results, from over 70 universities, reveal a significant decline in enrolments, especially of postgraduate taught students – which were reported to be down by more than 40% in January 2024 following the immigration rules changes.
This picture is reinforced by the latest data from Enroly, a platform used by around 60 universities. It suggests that international student demand for the UK is down significantly on last year, with overall deposits down by more than a third on the same point in 2023. Meanwhile data collated by IDP also indicates close to half of applicants (45%) would likely change or consider changing their study destination if the post-study work period was shortened. A third (37%) said the Government’s intention to review the Graduate visa has meant that they are now re-considering study abroad plans or inclined to choose another destination.
Most universities are bracing for further drops in international student numbers this autumn as the government’s reforms take effect and UUK calls the outlook for September “bleak.” The British Council have also warned that UK universities face “slower growth rates and rising competition” for international students.
A significant further reduction in the number of international students would threaten a hugely significant economic contribution. However, new survey data from Censuswide, commissioned by UUK, suggests the public are largely unaware of the scale of the positive economic contribution international students make to the UK economy. Indeed, only 3% of 2,000 adults surveyed correctly answered that the annual economic impact of one year’s intake in 2021/22 was above £10bn – and the exact figure is £41.9bn.
Similarly, when asked how much international students should pay every year towards the NHS, irrespective of whether they use it, only 3% selected the highest option offered, of £700, with the average figure across respondents coming out as £346.59. The NHS surcharge is currently £776 per year.
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